Potty-mouth Will!—kinda nice to have the freedom to write frankly, informally, cursing like a sailor, in’t it?
I agree with your analysis. It’s the only way to square McConnell’s spasms of fence-stradding, and the bizarre spectacle of GQPs cannonballing into the quicksand with the big lie because condemning him is ratting on themselves. These past few years have taught me a lot about how corruption works, stuff I wish I had never had to learn.
But it still amazes me that so few of them see that, to quote an evergreen tweet from 2015, “I NEVER THOUGHT LEOPARDS WOULD EAT *MY* FACE, SOBS WOMAN WHO VOTED FOR LEOPARDS EATING PEOPLE’S FACES PARTY.”
I do find it irksome if unsurprising that so many reporters and pundits took McConnell at his word when he denounced the former guy, as if he had suddenly developed a morality module. Then they’re puzzled when he does a Uie and acquits and endorses.
Very interested in your thoughts on CPAC and the former guy’s “comeback.”
Don't know if you've seen the Frank Luntz interview on Frontline post-1/6, but it's utterly riveting, and focuses a lot on the Trump/McConnell relationship.
My own take on this is somewhat different. I think that, paradoxically, the smart thing for the Republican Party to do is accept minority status and play a long game. For one thing, a wall more consequential than Trump's border wall has been successfully built: the conservative Supreme Court. McConnell doesn't need de jure control of the Senate to block super progressive legislation; the court may well strike some of it down. So the SC is a bulwark built to last for a solid generation to stem the progressive tide. For another, the demographic ground is shrinking beneath them and commanding majorities in national races is going to become increasingly difficult given their policy and identity profile. You can only play 5D chess for so long; at the end of the day, there is simply gravity. Whether in the deranged form of MAGA (Trump), or the slightly less deranged form of the latter day Reaganism clinging to power through voter suppression, corporate sponsorship, and congressional obstruction (McConnell), or the form of "oh wait, morality and facts are actually kind of important, let's try and do some sensible stuff" (Romney)--I just don't see how the wily coyote of the GOP survives this one. I know the GOP ice age has been prophecied ad nauseum, but I feel like it may finally be upon us. If that is the case, then the smart money for Republicans hoping for a better future should accepting that reality, accelerate the MAGA cancer from stage 3 to stage 4, eke out legislative compromises with the Democrats where they can, and--here is the really counterintuitive dark arts piece--torpedo congressional races in 2022. As Bannon likes to put it, it's Kali Yuga time. One of the assumptions behind my view here is that Trump is not an anomaly, but the senescent final phase of the Reagan cycle, a form of political economy that is collapsing; rather than resist that tectonic force, the leaders of the GOP of the future out to position themselves in relation to that wave, and that they'll accomplish more of what they want if they accept minority status rather than eeking out control of the chamber for a few more cycles and perpetuating vetocracy. The populist noises of folks like Hawley breaking with free-market fundamentalism are unconscious recognitions of this, but they're still too smitten with the ethnonationalism and white identity politics of MAGA to be part of a viable alternative. Sorry that was a lot...you just got me thinking!
Great to hear about PPI, btw. I hope your case is a sign of things to come: progressive circles becoming more ideologically diverse, including more people with non-progressive backgrounds, both to temper the excesses of some progressive thinking, and create a permission structure for more people in the center to play nice with the left and not see it as a slippery slope to socialism. In the fullness of time, that can help move the center of gravity of the entire system in the right direction--further left.
Looking in from the outside, but fwiw option (b) seems better.
The next Trump (or Trump protege) presidency seems likely to be the last truly democratically-elected government you guys get for some time. If Trump getting canned makes that less likely, that’s what you should go for, even if the alternatives are still pretty bad.
What you really need is a full GOP civil war, but they’re too disciplined for that. What I don’t get is what the 2024 aspirants think they’re doing? They’re in a tough spot, yes, but is just treading water and hoping there are no Trumps up against them really a good strategy? Hawley’s little flirtation with treason seems like an attempt to force the action a bit... not sure how it went for him though.
So, Kyle Griffin reported yesterday that McConnell told Fox News that he'd support Trump if he was the GOP nominee in 2024.
🤔
Contradictory statements & constant repositioning by politicians is no longer something that they fear getting caught doing. It's turned into a feature, not a bug.
In a world where voters get to pick the reality they prefer, presenting "choose your own adventure" soundbites literally gives consumers what they want.
I know this doesn't answer your question, but I think we live in an age of quantum reality where things can be true and false at the same time. Which means Mitch can both try to vanquish and work with Trump at the same time.
I think there's an obvious third option, which is to simply abstain from supporting anyone. Politicians calibrate their degree of support/opposition all the time, and many times that calibration leads them to simply do nothing.
But McConnell knows the right answer is to right now *say* he'll support Trump in 2024, but if Trump is *in fact* the nominee, he will actually *do* no more nor less than what McConnell needs to be seen doing in order to get the Senate majority.
You’ve convinced me that having a band of raging lunatics as senate candidates on the Republican side in 2022 is probably for the best despite it being like having an itch I can’t reach for the next 2 years. Immediately after Dems pick up ~3 seats Trump is convicted and goes to prison.
Potty-mouth Will!—kinda nice to have the freedom to write frankly, informally, cursing like a sailor, in’t it?
I agree with your analysis. It’s the only way to square McConnell’s spasms of fence-stradding, and the bizarre spectacle of GQPs cannonballing into the quicksand with the big lie because condemning him is ratting on themselves. These past few years have taught me a lot about how corruption works, stuff I wish I had never had to learn.
But it still amazes me that so few of them see that, to quote an evergreen tweet from 2015, “I NEVER THOUGHT LEOPARDS WOULD EAT *MY* FACE, SOBS WOMAN WHO VOTED FOR LEOPARDS EATING PEOPLE’S FACES PARTY.”
I do find it irksome if unsurprising that so many reporters and pundits took McConnell at his word when he denounced the former guy, as if he had suddenly developed a morality module. Then they’re puzzled when he does a Uie and acquits and endorses.
Very interested in your thoughts on CPAC and the former guy’s “comeback.”
Don't know if you've seen the Frank Luntz interview on Frontline post-1/6, but it's utterly riveting, and focuses a lot on the Trump/McConnell relationship.
My own take on this is somewhat different. I think that, paradoxically, the smart thing for the Republican Party to do is accept minority status and play a long game. For one thing, a wall more consequential than Trump's border wall has been successfully built: the conservative Supreme Court. McConnell doesn't need de jure control of the Senate to block super progressive legislation; the court may well strike some of it down. So the SC is a bulwark built to last for a solid generation to stem the progressive tide. For another, the demographic ground is shrinking beneath them and commanding majorities in national races is going to become increasingly difficult given their policy and identity profile. You can only play 5D chess for so long; at the end of the day, there is simply gravity. Whether in the deranged form of MAGA (Trump), or the slightly less deranged form of the latter day Reaganism clinging to power through voter suppression, corporate sponsorship, and congressional obstruction (McConnell), or the form of "oh wait, morality and facts are actually kind of important, let's try and do some sensible stuff" (Romney)--I just don't see how the wily coyote of the GOP survives this one. I know the GOP ice age has been prophecied ad nauseum, but I feel like it may finally be upon us. If that is the case, then the smart money for Republicans hoping for a better future should accepting that reality, accelerate the MAGA cancer from stage 3 to stage 4, eke out legislative compromises with the Democrats where they can, and--here is the really counterintuitive dark arts piece--torpedo congressional races in 2022. As Bannon likes to put it, it's Kali Yuga time. One of the assumptions behind my view here is that Trump is not an anomaly, but the senescent final phase of the Reagan cycle, a form of political economy that is collapsing; rather than resist that tectonic force, the leaders of the GOP of the future out to position themselves in relation to that wave, and that they'll accomplish more of what they want if they accept minority status rather than eeking out control of the chamber for a few more cycles and perpetuating vetocracy. The populist noises of folks like Hawley breaking with free-market fundamentalism are unconscious recognitions of this, but they're still too smitten with the ethnonationalism and white identity politics of MAGA to be part of a viable alternative. Sorry that was a lot...you just got me thinking!
Great to hear about PPI, btw. I hope your case is a sign of things to come: progressive circles becoming more ideologically diverse, including more people with non-progressive backgrounds, both to temper the excesses of some progressive thinking, and create a permission structure for more people in the center to play nice with the left and not see it as a slippery slope to socialism. In the fullness of time, that can help move the center of gravity of the entire system in the right direction--further left.
Looking in from the outside, but fwiw option (b) seems better.
The next Trump (or Trump protege) presidency seems likely to be the last truly democratically-elected government you guys get for some time. If Trump getting canned makes that less likely, that’s what you should go for, even if the alternatives are still pretty bad.
What you really need is a full GOP civil war, but they’re too disciplined for that. What I don’t get is what the 2024 aspirants think they’re doing? They’re in a tough spot, yes, but is just treading water and hoping there are no Trumps up against them really a good strategy? Hawley’s little flirtation with treason seems like an attempt to force the action a bit... not sure how it went for him though.
So, Kyle Griffin reported yesterday that McConnell told Fox News that he'd support Trump if he was the GOP nominee in 2024.
🤔
Contradictory statements & constant repositioning by politicians is no longer something that they fear getting caught doing. It's turned into a feature, not a bug.
In a world where voters get to pick the reality they prefer, presenting "choose your own adventure" soundbites literally gives consumers what they want.
I know this doesn't answer your question, but I think we live in an age of quantum reality where things can be true and false at the same time. Which means Mitch can both try to vanquish and work with Trump at the same time.
That McConnell would support any GOP nominee is entirely unsurprising. What's he going to do? Throw his weight behind the Harris/Buttigieg ticket?
I think there's an obvious third option, which is to simply abstain from supporting anyone. Politicians calibrate their degree of support/opposition all the time, and many times that calibration leads them to simply do nothing.
But McConnell knows the right answer is to right now *say* he'll support Trump in 2024, but if Trump is *in fact* the nominee, he will actually *do* no more nor less than what McConnell needs to be seen doing in order to get the Senate majority.
You’ve convinced me that having a band of raging lunatics as senate candidates on the Republican side in 2022 is probably for the best despite it being like having an itch I can’t reach for the next 2 years. Immediately after Dems pick up ~3 seats Trump is convicted and goes to prison.
Congratulations on the new gig by the way!
Thanks!